2017 Doklam Plateau - China and India military stand-off for Bhutanese border

2017 Doklam Plateau - China and India military stand-off for Bhutanese border

Lot has been said these days in Indian media about Chinese aggression in Doklam Plateau and Indian response to it. Media’s from both countries have been critical of each other, raising war cries. Chinese are more harsher than Indians, reminding loss of 1962 and brutal implications this time. So, can India and China really go to war? Will Chinese be able to defeat India? What will be the role of International community in this grand stage? Does India even has power to push back Chinese accession? Below is my analysis after doing little research on the topic and reading a dozen of articles.

Current situation - Chinese soldiers tried to enter Bhutanese territory in Doklam Plateau to construct road inside disputed area claimed by both China and Bhutan. This area even if disputed, is under Bhutanese control. Since Bhutan does not have direct diplomatic relations with Beijing, it communicates through New Delhi. Meaning, its India who takes up issues of Bhutan with China. Bhutan has in 1980 started border discussion with China but depends on India for protection. China on the other hand, wants to deal with Bhutan directly as it considers India as its adversary. Okay, but what is the need for India to send troops to save Bhutanese territory? Because India protects Bhutanese borders and Bhutan is considered strategically important by India. The current place of skirmish ‘Doklam’, is near a point where India-China-Bhutan meet and is called as tri-junction point, would give superiority to Chinese forces over 20 sq Km of India’s “Chiken’s Neck” region connecting West Bengal to Assam (or rest of India to North eastern states). Any full scale war between countries, would make this region weakest point for India to fight and hence its important to be protected. Both India and China have stationed over 3000 troops to protect advances in road construction, a build up of military unprecedented in long time.

Any Border Agreements? - Bhutan had accepted that it has border disputes along 450 Km border with China and Doklam Plateau is among them. Bhutan had border agreements with British India and Tibet (an independent before Chinese annexed it) and doesn’t confirm to Chinese claim on Bhutanese territory. On part of India, it rests with Sikkim agreement between Sikkim, Tibet and Bhutan. Sikkim was not part of India until 1975 but was under Indian protection militarily.

Skirmishes a Regular affair? - Minor advances from Chinese are regular thing for Indians and are successfully pushed back. In such fightings both troops do not use guns and push each other with hands or chests - called as ‘jostling’. Its a test where both side check each other’s resolve to fight back. But lately this has become assertive behavior from Chinese. During high profile meeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping to India in 2014, after 8 years, Chinese army had infiltrated on Indian side, later leaving for original position after the meet. This had casted a shadow over Modi-Xi meeting, resulting in no positive outcome over border dispute agreements.

Complete hatred in Indo-China relations? - No, both countries support each other on many issues internationally, in fact Indian government was among the first to recognize Chinese state of PRC(People’s Republic of China) after her creation. India supported permanent seat for PRC in United nations and its ‘One China’ Policy meaning accepting Taiwan (ROC, Republic of China) as official region of China and not separate country, also India does not have direct diplomatic relations with ROC. Both countries play important role in BRICS group, Modi agreed to formation of BRICS bank in China while Chinese agreed to Indian becoming its first president. Also, China did not support its all weather ally Pakistan militarily in any war with India. India-China had around $72B exchanged in trade in 2016.




Pain points in Indo-China relations - China shares 3225 kms of disputed border with India. British India had border agreements with Tibetan govt bypassing China during 1900s, but when China annexed Tibet, it did not agree to agreement terms. As per China, what was under Tibet historically, is hers to claim. British India had marked region of ‘Aksai Chin’ as Indian which was way north of what Indian’s had claimed historically and on other side the current ‘Arunachal Pradesh’ was considered in India but was south of Indian expectations. Always the high mountains of Himalaya were considered as borders by India historically. Aksai Chin is on Leddakh side of Kashmir, which was annexed by China in 1962 war and is her territory, whereas Arunachal Pradesh was then returned to India after ceasefire. China had defeated India in 1962 war. India’s support of Tibetan Independence movements remains one of the biggest pain points in relations of both countries. India allowed 14th Dalai Lama to settle in India, also accepted Tibetan refugees after ‘Tibetan Uprising’ in 1900s. There is ‘Tibetan Govt in Exile’ thats still supported by India and is operated from ‘Dharamshala’ in Himachal Pradesh. China consistently accuse India of playing Tibetan card to score strategic points.



1962 Indo-China war - This has cast a very deep distrust between Indian and Chinese people. Indians are being told so far, how India lost to China and not why? It was a complete failure on part of then Prime Minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru, not to recognize Chinese Intentions, military movements in early 1962 and succumbing to defeat because of trust on Chinese and having unprepared army at the border. Indian Defense minister K Menon at the time, had soft corner for communism and also had ruled out any Chinese aggression. The term “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai” was popular before 1962, which was coined by Pt Jawaharlal Nehru. Pt Nehru who was enjoying International status back then by being head of Non-Align Movement (A movement in which newly independent countries after WW2 refused to join either of US or Russian (Soviet Union) bloc), assumed China with powerful military would be considered as an aggressor in event of war, which would get international support for India. In Indian military also, the thinking was - if you fire 2-3 rounds at Chinese, they will run away. As a result, small number of troops were posted sparsely and along difficult locations on border with Chinese. In early 1961, India adopted ‘Forward Policy’ under which any area which was considered historically Indian in forward locations along the border, even if in disputed area, would be captured pushing Chinese soldiers back into there own territory. This policy was adopted on both western (on Aksai Chin) as well as eastern, the Arunachal Pradesh Theater. And to surprise of Indians, Chinese did pull back, confirming correctness of Indian Strategy. But one mistake was made, Indian forward troops had no ammunition support or reinforcements at these points making them vulnerable to strong Chinese attack.

Chinese took this policy as Indian aggression and support for Tibetan cause. Other factor involved in this thinking was, India had annexed Goa from Portuguese in 1961 forcefully, which cemented Chinese thinking of ‘Indian Expansionism’. To the ignorance of Nehru, China had started preparing for war on both fronts 6 months in advance. Indian’s did not even notice the logistic supply and ammunition upgrade of Chinese soldiers on long border, even roads constructed by China on Aksai chin went un-noticed by Indian Side. The timing of 1962 war is also of much importance, as it coincides with Cuban Missile crisis, both India-China war and Cuban crisis started on 20th October 1962 and ended on 20th November 1962. Cuban missile crisis was a month long military stand-off between US and Soviet Union(todays’ Russia) for Soviet missile deployment in Cuba; near US border. China had convinced Russia of not interfering in war with India, Chinese premier even had pre-knowledge of Cuban crisis with knowledge of Soviet and Cuban’s signing secret agreement with each other, and so he timed the war in parallel, so that India does not receive help from any of superpower, either US or Soviet Union. Chinese were aware that Indian soldiers present on front locations are India’s best, so they planned their reinforcements accordingly. Major factor in war was also the terrain of this area, which was more than 4000m of hight from sea level, ensuring difficulties on Indian side for quick reinforcement. When Indian’s thought Chinese soldiers are pulling back, Chinese were actually circling them from back side, they had cut-off communications lines between forward soldiers and their seniors and then attacked un-noticed, causing heavy casualties for Indian army. As communication did not reach seniors in Indian army, Chinese moved ahead faster and attacked many deeper posts in Arunachal Pradesh, reaching Assam. Indians had burnt the Govt. currencies in treasuries to prevent it from falling into Chinese hands and ran downwards in Assam. Chinese on Ladakh side had attacked brutally as well, leaving Indian soldiers to die in freezing cold. Indian soldiers could not fight heavily armed Chinese with light machine guns.
On November 21 1962, Chinese premier announced unilateral ceasefire along both fronts and re-treated 20 kms back from occupied positions. Leaders from both side exchanged letters but could not agree on lines of retreat and since then the stand-off continues till today. In war, India had suffered badly, more than 1000 killed and 3500 captured, soldiers had to surrender, leaving army moral completely devastated. To the surprise of Indians today, Pakistan had helped India in that war from Ladakh side but when India lost, it got aware of Chinese strength and resolved all of her disputes. After end of Cuban crisis, President J F Kennedy, saw the India-China war as one more example of aggression from Communists on democratic country and communicated to his security counsel ‘If we have to defend India in future, we will defend India’. Soviets had also warned China of another act.

India learned its lessons very harsh way. After that defeat, India increased army multiple folds on both fronts, logistics, ammunition facilities, communication lines were dramatically improved. Result of this was, huge win against Pakistan in war of 1965.

1967 Chinese Attack on India- It is a hardly talked activity in India. In 1967, there was major skirmish between Indian and Chinese forces on Nathu La pass. Indian soldiers were laying wires on their side of disputed border and Chinese did not like it. Without even authorized by central command, Chinese soldiers attacked Indians, but suffered heavy losses. India had defeated Chinese aggression within 5 days with heavy casualties on Chinese side. Indian politico was impressed with this response. More than 340 killed and 450 were wounded on Chinese side.
Full Blown war between China and India? - Coming back to present stand-off at Doklam plateau. It’s not possible to go for full blown war, neither country wants it, as both are nuclear armed. No matter how much Chinese media wants to remind us of 1962, neither country is in same condition, India being prepared equally than ever before. Geopolitical conditions have also changed. If China has to claim Superpower status, it can’t be seen as aggressor. China is constantly alleged of having contesting sovereignty of other countries, right from east asian nations of Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam to India in west. China is currently implementing then Indian strategy of ‘Forward Policy’ by creating military bases in South China sea to cement its claims on sea routes. As expected due to this strategy, US has focused its eyes on ‘Pivot To Asia’ policy of containing Chinese influence in Pacific and Indian ocean. Russia is also considered as long time Indian friend, but looking at India’s close proximity to US and Russians recently conducted military exercises with Pakistani forces, it needs to be seen where will they support in event of conflict. Any major conflict between China-India will divide the world like never before and countries will be forced to take sides. And You don’t get glory till you emerge victorious in wars thats the history and its been waiting for a long time now. Any country using nuke first in this conflict, will provide testing ground for other superpowers to test fire their own nukes on her soil, even as the public opinion will sympathize receiving country first. Other than US, no one has tested true strength of their nukes yet and that remains the inner wish of big powers. Its still debated about Japanese, why didn’t their leaders inform Hiroshima city counsel when they had already spotted US bombers on way to Hiroshima, which could have saved few lives had the siren system raised the alarms. Even in the event of nukes being used in war, whichever country will be able to target financial districts other first, will push that country back in time by more than 50 years in history financially, morally and after that, you don’t really need to continue the war.

Chinese have already tested resolve of Modi, when he did not raise Chinese infiltration of 2014 with President Xi Jinping, making it an issue as administration level, something he knew, that it can be handled easily and something that doesn’t need his level of intervention. At the same time, Modi’s leadership is complete untrustworthy for Indian adversaries as he has done surgical strikes on Pakistan as well as Myanmar in their own backyard. Modi has been around the world since current crisis broke, having bilateral meetings with heads of US, Israel and several European countries. China must have been mindful of this, that current stand-off must have already been discussed behind the closed doors.

In a world, where US couldn’t save Crimea annexation from Russia leaving Ukraine in tears, Hong Kong’s democracy fight with no support from its earlier master; the UK, Syrian’s chemical attack on its own population going unpunished by NATO, India has stood firm for one of smallest and peaceful country of world- Bhutan.

If China starts the war at stand-off point, keeping it local and looses it, that will give confidence to East Asian nations in India, in fact, they might have already chosen India as their go to country for help. If China does push back Indian soldiers and enters into Bhutan, world will see it as aggression of a superpower on smallest country who can’t defend itself, creating solidarity with India for trying to protect other countries’ sovereignty. China is a looser in both cases here. Doklam would be considered as major stand-off between 2 countries, having many geopolitical and strategic outcomes for future strategies of the world.